Nifty 50 Eyes 26,000 Milestone: GIFT Nifty Signals 120-Point Gap-Up Amid India-US Trade Optimism
Introduction
The Indian equity landscape is set for an electrified opening this Tuesday, February 10, 2026. Following a robust performance on Monday, where the Nifty 50 climbed 173.60 points (0.68%) to close at 25,867.30 and the Sensex advanced 485.35 points (0.58%) to finish at 84,065.75, the momentum appears far from exhausted. Early indicators from GIFT Nifty suggest a gap-up start, with the index trading near 25,990, reflecting a premium of 75 to 120 points.
For retail investors, today's session is pivotal for two reasons: the psychological battle at the 26,000 mark for the benchmark index and a high-stakes earnings calendar featuring heavyweights like Titan Company and Eicher Motors. This surge is largely underpinned by the recently announced India-US interim trade agreement, which has injected fresh confidence into export-oriented sectors and improved the outlook for foreign capital inflows.
In this comprehensive guide, we break down the technical levels, global tailwinds, and stock-specific triggers you need to monitor for today's trading session.
Global Market Cues: Strong Tailwinds Supporting Indian Equities
US Markets: Technology-Led Rally Continues
Wall Street provided a supportive backdrop on Monday, February 9, 2026. Technology stocks, which are often a lead indicator for Indian IT sentiment, led a broad-based recovery.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Reclaimed the 50,135.87 mark.
- S&P 500: Advanced 0.47% to settle at 6,964.82.
- Nasdaq Composite: Surged 0.90% to close at 23,238.67.
The rally was primarily fueled by the de-escalation of trade tensions and the positive reception of the India-US trade framework, which promises deeper economic integration between the two nations.
Asian Markets: Japan Leads Regional Rally
Asian markets have carried this optimism into Tuesday morning. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has been the standout performer, trading around 56,363 levels. This follows a massive 4.7% surge on Monday—its largest single-day gain in months—driven by the "Takaichi trade" after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s party secured a super-majority, signaling market-friendly policies.
Other regional highlights include:
- Hang Seng Index: Trading steadily near 27,027.
- S&P/ASX 200: Up 0.53% in early trade.
- KOSPI: Maintaining positive momentum.
Commodities and Currency
- Crude Oil (Brent): Currently trading at $64.18 per barrel. Stability in energy prices is a net positive for India’s fiscal deficit and inflation management.
- USD/INR: The Rupee is expected to remain stable between 90.50 and 90.70, supported by the trade deal prospects.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels for Benchmark Indices
Nifty 50: The 26,000 Breakout Battle
Technical charts indicate a bullish runaway gap pattern, suggesting the uptrend is intact. However, a Doji candle formation on Monday warrants a degree of caution as it reflects a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
Key Support Levels:
- 25,800: The primary support zone, backed by significant Put writing of 1.49 crore contracts.
- 25,795: The 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) acts as a dynamic floor.
- 25,780: Monday’s intraday low.
- 25,700: A secondary support base where value buying is expected.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 25,940: Immediate hurdle for futures.
- 26,000: The ultimate psychological barrier with maximum Call Open Interest of 2.01 crore contracts.
- 26,200: The next target upon a decisive breakout.
| Nifty Pivot Analysis | Level |
|---|---|
| Primary Pivot Point | 25,857 |
| Resistance 1 (R1) | 25,911 |
| Resistance 2 (R2) | 25,944 |
| Support 1 (S1) | 25,803 |
| Support 2 (S2) | 25,769 |
Bank Nifty: Consolidating at the Top
Bank Nifty (Close: 60,669.35) is currently hovering near its upper Bollinger Bands, a sign of strength that also hints at being slightly overbought in the ultra-short term.
| Bank Nifty Pivot Analysis | Level |
|---|---|
| Primary Pivot Point | 60,681 |
| Resistance 1 (R1) | 60,826 |
| Resistance 2 (R2) | 60,916 |
| Support 1 (S1) | 60,535 |
| Support 2 (S2) | 60,445 |
Critical support for Bank Nifty remains at 59,600, while a breakout above 61,100 could open doors to 61,800.
Options Market & Volatility Index (VIX)
Nifty Options Data
The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands between 1.05 and 1.11, indicating a bullish bias. Market participants are heavily positioned at the 26,000 Call and 25,800 Put, suggesting this 200-point range will define the day's expiry action. The Max Pain level is currently calculated at 25,875.
India VIX
The India VIX rose slightly by 2.09% to 12.19. While there is a minor uptick in perceived risk, the index remains well below the crucial 13 mark, suggesting that bulls are still in control and fear levels are low.
FII and DII Activity: The Tide Turns
After a period of sustained selling in January, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have made a dramatic return as aggressive buyers. On February 9, FII net buying exceeded Rs 11,500 crore across segments:
- Cash Segment: Net buyers of Rs 2,254.64 crore.
- Index Futures: Net buyers of Rs 3,745.24 crore.
- Index Options: Net buyers of Rs 5,550.08 crore.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained stable, contributing a net buy of Rs 4.15 crore in the cash segment, continuing their role as a structural support for the Indian market.
Stocks to Watch: February 10, 2026
Major Earnings Today
- Titan Company (TITAN): Eyes on Q3 results; strong jewelry sales expected during the festive window. Key level: Rs 3,500.
- Eicher Motors (EICHERMOT): Focus on Royal Enfield margins. Technical breakout watch above Rs 5,000.
- Grasim Industries (GRASIM): Watching cement demand and diversification progress. Key level: Rs 2,700.
- Apollo Hospitals (APOLLOHOSP): Healthcare momentum is strong; watch for occupancy rates at Rs 7,000.
- Britannia Industries (BRITANNIA): Rural recovery trends are the key metric. Key level: Rs 5,800.
Corporate Action & News
- Marico: Acquiring a 75% stake in Vietnam's Skinetiq for Rs 261.6 crore. Positive for long-term international growth.
- Ceigall India: Bagged a Rs 1,700 crore solar project in Morena Solar Park. This represents roughly 10-12% of their annual revenue.
- RailTel: Received an order worth Rs 454.94 crore from West Central Railway.
- Gravita India: Signed a term sheet to acquire Rasthriya Metal Industries for Rs 565 crore.
Previous Day's Outperformers
- State Bank of India (SBIN): Rallied 7.6% yesterday on record profits. Any dip toward Rs 1,150 could be an accumulation zone.
- BSE Limited: Profit soared 174% YoY. Expect some profit booking at Rs 6,000 given the sharp run-up.
Sectoral Outlook
- Banking: Positive. Led by SBI and HDFC Bank, the sector shows strong NIM expansion and asset quality.
- IT Services: Positive. Boosted by the Nasdaq rally, but individual charts for TCS show slight resistance.
- Infrastructure: Positive. Consistent order flows for companies like NCC and L&T provide visibility.
- FMCG: Mixed to Positive. Defensive play while waiting for rural demand confirmation from Britannia.
- Metals: Neutral. SAIL is in the F&O ban; China demand remains a global concern.
Events Calendar: Key Dates to Monitor
- Ex-Dividend (Feb 10): Apollo Tyres, Emami, NHPC, RITES, and Tube Investments trade ex-dividend today.
- F&O Ban: SAIL and Sammaan Capital are restricted for exceeding the 95% position limit.
- New CPI Series (Feb 12): A crucial macro event that will recalibrate inflation data and potentially influence future RBI policy.
- Adani Enterprises Rights Issue (Feb 13): Record date for the final call money of Rs 450 per share.
Key Takeaways
- Opening Bias: Data suggests a strong 75-120 point gap-up for Nifty based on GIFT Nifty levels of 25,990.
- Institutional Shift: FIIs have flipped from sellers to aggressive buyers, injecting Rs 11,500+ crore in a single session.
- Resistance Zone: The 26,000 strike has massive Call Open Interest (2.01 crore), making it a significant profit-booking zone.
- Safe Havens: SBI and Reliance Industries (near 1,455) continue to provide structural stability to the benchmarks.
What This Means for Investors
The current market environment is one of cautious optimism. The convergence of a landmark trade deal and the return of foreign capital creates a powerful fundamental tailwind. Historically, when the India VIX remains below 13 during a breakout attempt, the probability of the trend sustaining is higher.
Investors may consider monitoring:
- The 26,000 close: A daily close above this level would confirm a fresh leg of the bull market.
- Earnings Quality: Look beyond the headline numbers of Titan and Britannia—focus on management guidance regarding rural demand.
- Volatility Management: Today is the weekly options expiry. Retail traders should avoid chasing the gap-up and wait for a retest of the 25,850 level for better risk-reward entries.