Indian Stock Market Preview: February 17, 2026

Introduction

The Indian stock market is poised for a subdued opening this Tuesday, February 17, 2026, as traders navigate a unique landscape characterized by a global liquidity vacuum. With major Asian markets closed for Lunar New Year celebrations and US markets observing the Presidents' Day holiday, domestic factors are set to play an outsized role in determining the intraday trajectory. Data suggests that in the absence of international catalysts, local institutional behavior and technical structures will become the primary drivers of price action.

Historical trends indicate that low-volume sessions can lead to heightened sensitivity around key psychological levels. For retail investors, this session represents a period of consolidation where the market tests the resilience of recent recovery gains. The contrasting behavior between Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remains the central theme of the current market regime.

Market Opening Expectations

Pre-Market Indicators

The GIFT Nifty futures are currently trading at 25,637, which represents a significant discount of approximately 80 points from the Nifty futures' previous close of 25,717. This suggests a gap-down opening for the benchmark indices.

On Monday, February 16, the Nifty 50 showed resilience, closing at 25,683 with a gain of 211.65 points or 0.83%. Similarly, the Sensex rebounded by 650.39 points or 0.79%, ending at 83,277.15. The expected opening range for today is as follows:

• Nifty 50: Expected to open between 25,600 and 25,630.
• Sensex: Likely to open around 83,100 to 83,150.

Expected Trading Ranges

For the Nifty 50, immediate support is visible at 25,550-25,500. A more crucial support zone lies at 25,470-25,300, and a breach below this could lead to further weakness toward the 25,200 mark. On the resistance front, levels are clustered at 25,708-25,750, with 25,800 acting as a critical breakout level. A sustained move above this could propel the index toward the 26,000 psychological barrier.

For the Sensex, supports are identified at 83,000 and 82,700, with a major floor at 81,800-82,000. Resistance is expected at 83,500-83,700 and the 83,800-84,000 range.

Global Market Landscape

US Markets and Futures

US markets remained closed on Monday for Presidents' Day and will continue to see limited activity today. However, futures provide a glimpse into the underlying sentiment:

• S&P 500 futures: Up 0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 futures: Down 0.2%
• Dow Jones futures: Up 76 points or 0.2%

This muted movement reflects persistent uncertainty regarding technology sector valuations and the ongoing impact of artificial intelligence disruption on traditional business models.

Asian Markets Overview

Trading across the Asian continent is extraordinarily thin due to the Lunar New Year. Major exchanges in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea are closed. Among the markets that remain open:

• Japan's Nikkei 225: Down 0.5% to 56,806.41
• Japan's Topix: Down 0.2% to 3,779.29
• Australia's S&P/ASX 200: Up 0.5% to 8,940, buoyed by commodity strength.

Commodity and Currency Markets

Oil prices have seen an uptick due to geopolitical tensions and supply-side concerns. WTI Crude gained 1.29% to trade between $63.45 and $63.87 per barrel, while Brent Crude rose 1.33% to approximately $68.43-$68.71. The Indian Rupee closed at 90.66-90.78 against the US Dollar on Monday, benefiting slightly from stabilized crude prices.

Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

The Nifty 50 formed a bullish engulfing reversal pattern on the daily chart during the previous session. However, it must now sustain above the 25,750 level to fill the bearish gap created on February 13.

Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not in extreme zones, suggesting neutral momentum. The daily pivot stands at 25,708.

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

Bank Nifty significantly outperformed on Monday, closing above 60,900. The structure remains positive as long as the index holds above 60,500.

Technical Indicators: The RSI for Bank Nifty has surged above the 60 mark, and a hidden positive divergence is visible on hourly charts.

Options Market Analysis

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.11, indicating a balanced to slightly bullish sentiment. Option writers appear comfortable selling puts at lower levels, reflecting confidence in the support zones.

Nifty Open Interest (OI):

• Maximum Call OI: 26,000 strike (1.36 crore contracts)
• Maximum Put OI: 25,500 strike (1.41 crore contracts)
• Heavy writing is concentrated at the 25,500 pivot, suggesting it will be a major battleground today.

Bank Nifty Open Interest (OI):

• Maximum Call OI: 60,000 strike (14.68 lakh contracts)
• Maximum Put OI: 60,000 strike (21.8 lakh contracts)

India VIX: The fear gauge fell 2.2% to 9.84, pointing toward stable risk perception and a likely range-bound environment.

Institutional Flow Analysis

Foreign and domestic institutional flows have diverged sharply over the last five sessions, creating a tug-of-war for market control.

FII and DII Activity (Rs Crores)

Data indicates that while FIIs have been persistent sellers (notably on Feb 13), DIIs have provided a robust cushion, particularly in the banking and PSU sectors.

Stocks to Watch: February 17, 2026

1. Cochin Shipyard Ltd: Emerged as the L1 bidder for a Rs 5,000 crore Navy contract for five Next Generation Survey Vessels. Monitor for breakout momentum.
2. Coal India Ltd: Targeting 3,000 MW solar capacity by FY28; solar capex doubled to Rs 961 crore. A key buy-on-dip candidate.
3. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS): Collaborating with AMD for AI infrastructure (up to 200 MW). Watch for technical outperformance.
4. IIFL Finance: Increasing its External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) share from 12-13% to 20% next year to improve margins.
5. Lupin Ltd: Postal Ballot Matter today. Bullish setup above 2,232 resistance; support at 2,208.
6. Kwality Wall's of India: Listed at a 26% discount (Rs 40.2) post-demerger. Introduction of Ben & Jerry's brand may attract value buyers.
7. Texmaco Rail & Engineering: Secured a Rs 219.18 crore signaling contract from Mumbai Railway Vikas Corporation.
8. Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL): Approved Safran Electronics JV, a strategic win for its defense electronics portfolio.
9. Infosys Ltd: Hosting an AI-focused investor meet. Critical for a sector that has slumped 13.7% in 2026.
10. HDFC Bank: Strong recent performer (up 2.19% to 925.45). Core banking play for dip buyers.
11. Axis Bank: Watch for momentum above 1,362; weak below 1,350.
12. Godrej Properties: Technical setup looks strong above 1,845.
13. Siemens Ltd: A capital goods play to watch above 3,232.

Scheduled Events and Economic Calendar

Corporate Events

• Results: Evexia Lifecare and Sameera Agro & Infra.
• Board Meetings: Healthcare Global (Rights Issue), Avax Apparels (Bonus/Split), Riddhi Steel (Bonus 1:2).
• Postal Ballots: Anand Rathi Wealth, Pine Labs, Capri Global, and Lupin.

Market-Wide Events

• India AI Impact Summit: Crucial for Information Technology and Software sectors currently facing AI disruption fears.
• Solar Eclipse (Surya Grahan): May have a marginal sentiment impact on traditional retail participants.

Sectoral Outlook

• Banking: Positive. Mutual fund allocations to PSU banks are at three-year highs. Maintain long bias above Bank Nifty 60,500.
• Information Technology: Negative to Neutral. The sector has declined 13.7% YTD. Caution is warranted until the AI strategy becomes clearer.
• Infrastructure: Positive. Sustained government capex focus supports players like L&T and Texmaco Rail.
• Defense: Positive. Cochin Shipyard and BEL represent a structural story driven by indigenization.

Trading Strategy for February 17, 2026

For Intraday Traders

• Nifty Strategy: Expected range is 25,500-25,750. Consider buying above 25,650 targeting 25,750. Sell below 25,550 targeting 25,470. Maintain a strict 30-40 point stop loss.
• Bank Nifty Strategy: Buy zone is 60,600-60,500 for targets of 61,000-61,200. Exit longs if the index closes below 60,015.
• Options Strategy: An Iron Condor (Selling 25,500 PE / 26,000 CE) may suit a range-bound environment.

For Positional and Long-Term Investors

• Accumulate: Banking majors and Defense PSUs on 1-2% dips.
• Thematic Focus: Infrastructure and Railway stocks remain backed by strong order books.
• Cash Reserves: Maintain 40-50% cash as the market is in a consolidation phase.

Key Takeaways

• GIFT Nifty signals a gap-down start near 25,637.
• FII selling of Rs 7,245.86 crore over five days is being countered by Rs 8,546.64 crore in DII buying.
• Banking and Defense sectors show the strongest relative strength.
• Nifty support is robust at 25,500, while 25,800 remains the critical resistance to beat.

What This Means for Investors

The current market environment reflects a "wait-and-watch" period characterized by low global participation. While the gap-down opening might seem bearish, the underlying support from domestic institutions suggests that dips are being actively bought. Investors may consider monitoring the 25,470 level on Nifty; as long as this holds, the bullish reversal structure remains intact. The IT sector requires a cautious approach, as current valuations are being tested by technological shifts. Focus on companies with clear order visibility, such as those in the defense and railway sectors.

Risk Assessment: MODERATE. While DII support is high, thin liquidity and rising oil prices represent ongoing risks.